Testing claims about volcanic disruption of a potential geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain is a potential repository site for high‐level radioactive waste. We examine claims that the frequency of future basaltic dike intersection could be 1 × 10 −6 /yr or higher (i.e., on average, one penetration every million yrs). These claims fail simple tests at four time scales. Spatial‐temporal models that predict intrusion frequencies >2 × 10 −7 /yr are overly pessimistic because no dikes have been found in the 13 Myr‐old potential repository footprint. More realistic models are developed by considering this non‐detection of dikes and by applying probabilistic hazard assessments based on known patterns of Pleistocene volcanism. Using a hazard assessment code, we estimate the frequency of dike intersection at 5.4 × 10 −8 /yr with an upper 95% confidence bound of 9.8 × 10 −8 /yr.