Premium
Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Author(s) -
Vellinga M.,
Wood R. A.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2004gl020306
Subject(s) - hadcm3 , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , thermohaline circulation , hydrography , general circulation model , environmental science , climate change , ocean current , shutdown of thermohaline circulation , zonal and meridional , circulation (fluid dynamics) , abrupt climate change , geology , oceanography , global warming , gcm transcription factors , effects of global warming , north atlantic deep water , physics , thermodynamics
Detection of anthropogenic weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (‘MOC’) may be improved by monitoring a limited number of key oceanic variables. We have identified a set of potentially useful ocean hydrographic observations in the climate general circulation model HadCM3. When the model is forced by an anthropogenic climate forcing scenario for the 21st century, a pattern is found that captures co‐variability of these variables and strength of the MOC. Fingerprints of this pattern emerge clearly on time scales of 10 years from background noise caused by internal variability. If similar results are found in other climate models this will provide useful information for the design of an MOC observing system.