Variation of large elastodynamic earthquakes on complex fault systems

One of the biggest assumptions, and a source of some of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake hazard estimation is the role of fault segmentation in controlling large earthquake ruptures. Here we apply a new model which produces sequences of elastodynamic earthquake events on complex segmented fault systems, and use these simulations to quantify the variation of large events. We find a number of important systematic effects of segment geometry on the slip variation and the repeat time variation of large events, including an increase in variation at the ends of segments and a decrease in variation for the longest segments.