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Impacts of future land cover changes on atmospheric CO 2 and climate
Author(s) -
Sitch Stephen,
Brovkin Victor,
von Bloh Werner,
van Vuuren Detlef,
Eickhout Bas,
Ganopolski Andrey
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1029/2004gb002311
Subject(s) - environmental science , biogeochemical cycle , climate change , representative concentration pathways , atmospheric sciences , northern hemisphere , carbon cycle , land cover , greenhouse gas , climatology , climate model , southern hemisphere , global warming , range (aeronautics) , land use , geology , ecosystem , oceanography , environmental chemistry , ecology , materials science , composite material , biology , chemistry
Climate‐carbon cycle model CLIMBER2‐LPJ is run with consistent fields of future fossil fuel CO 2 emissions and geographically explicit land cover changes for four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2. By 2100, increases in global mean temperatures range between 1.7°C (B1) and 2.7°C (A2) relative to the present day. Biogeochemical warming associated with future tropical land conversion is larger than its corresponding biogeophysical cooling effect in A2, and amplifies biogeophysical warming associated with Northern Hemisphere land abandonment in B1. In 2100, simulated atmospheric CO 2 ranged from 592 ppm (B1) to 957 ppm (A2). Future CO 2 concentrations simulated with the model are higher than previously reported for the same SRES emission scenarios, indicating the effect of future CO 2 emission scenarios and land cover changes may hitherto be underestimated. The maximum contribution of land cover changes to future atmospheric CO 2 among the four SRES scenarios represents a modest 127 ppm, or 22% in relative terms, with the remainder attributed to fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.