Framework to evaluate the worth of hydraulic conductivity data for optimal groundwater resources management in ecologically sensitive areas

We propose a framework that combines simulation optimization with Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate the worth of hydraulic conductivity data for optimal groundwater resources management in ecologically sensitive areas. A stochastic simulation optimization management model is employed to plan regionally distributed groundwater pumping while preserving the hydroecological balance in wetland areas. Because predictions made by an aquifer model are uncertain, groundwater supply systems operate below maximum yield. Collecting data from the groundwater system can potentially reduce predictive uncertainty and increase safe water production. The price paid for improvement in water management is the cost of collecting the additional data. Efficient data collection using Bayesian decision analysis proceeds in three stages: (1) The prior analysis determines the optimal pumping scheme and profit from water sales on the basis of known information. (2) The preposterior analysis estimates the optimal measurement locations and evaluates whether each sequential measurement will be cost‐effective before it is taken. (3) The posterior analysis then revises the prior optimal pumping scheme and consequent profit, given the new information. Stochastic simulation optimization employing a multiple‐realization approach is used to determine the optimal pumping scheme in each of the three stages. The cost of new data must not exceed the expected increase in benefit obtained in optimal groundwater exploitation. An example based on groundwater management practices in Florida aimed at wetland protection showed that the cost of data collection more than paid for itself by enabling a safe and reliable increase in production.