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Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems
Author(s) -
Rundle John B.,
Turcotte Donald L.,
Shcherbakov Robert,
Klein William,
Sammis Charles
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
reviews of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 8.087
H-Index - 156
eISSN - 1944-9208
pISSN - 8755-1209
DOI - 10.1029/2003rg000135
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , cellular automaton , seismology , statistical physics , earthquake prediction , san andreas fault , geology , block (permutation group theory) , range (aeronautics) , statistical model , computer science , fault (geology) , physics , mathematics , engineering , aerospace engineering , algorithm , artificial intelligence , geometry
Earthquakes and the faults upon which they occur interact over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In addition, many aspects of regional seismicity appear to be stochastic both in space and time. However, within this complexity, there is considerable self‐organization. We argue that the occurrence of earthquakes is a problem that can be attacked using the fundamentals of statistical physics. Concepts of statistical physics associated with phase changes and critical points have been successfully applied to a variety of cellular automata models. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and, particularly, slider block models. These models exhibit avalanche behavior very similar to observed seismicity. A fundamental question is whether variations in seismicity can be used to successfully forecast the occurrence of earthquakes. Several attempts have been made to utilize precursory seismic activation and quiescence to make earthquake forecasts, some of which show promise.