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Convective scheme and resolution impacts on seasonal precipitation forecasts
Author(s) -
Shin D. W.,
LaRow T. E.,
Cocke S.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2003gl018297
Subject(s) - predictability , precipitation , climatology , environmental science , satellite , convection , horizontal resolution , meteorology , quantitative precipitation forecast , range (aeronautics) , high resolution , atmospheric sciences , mathematics , remote sensing , geology , geography , statistics , physics , materials science , astronomy , composite material
An investigation is carried out to assess the role of different convective schemes and resolutions in seasonal quantitative forecasts of precipitation. The model performances are evaluated by changing convective schemes and the resolution impacts are examined by increasing the model horizontal resolution from T63 to T170 and finally T255. The predicted rainfall amounts are compared against the TRMM satellite estimate. Every forecast captures prominent rainfall features reasonably well. However, there are pros and cons in each of the forecasts. Predicted seasonal rainfall patterns and intensities from changing convective schemes exhibit larger variability and higher impact on predictability than those from increasing resolution. The impact of higher resolution with any currently implemented cumulus parameterization turns out to be smaller in seasonal precipitation forecasts than in short‐ to medium‐range forecasts.