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Eurasian snow cover, more skillful in predicting U.S. winter climate than the NAO/AO?
Author(s) -
Cohen Judah L.,
Saito Kazuyuki
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2003gl018053
Subject(s) - northern hemisphere , snow , climatology , snow cover , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , arctic oscillation , physical geography , meteorology , geology , geography
Successfully predicting the phase and strength of the dominant winter mode of variability for the Northern Hemisphere (NAO/AO) is considered the most important future breakthrough in winter climate prediction; however skillful prediction of the index has been elusive. In this Letter we present a snow index constructed from observed summer and fall anomalies that is more highly correlated than the observed value of the winter AO with winter surface temperatures in the eastern United States. Ease of use and the potential for greater predictive skill could potentially render forecasting the phase and strength of the NAO/AO irrelevant as a tool for prediction of U. S. winter surface temperatures.