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The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of arctic multi‐year sea ice
Author(s) -
Dumas J. A.,
Flato G. M.,
Weaver A. J.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2003gl017433
Subject(s) - sea ice , arctic ice pack , arctic sea ice decline , climatology , arctic oscillation , arctic , forcing (mathematics) , geology , arctic geoengineering , arctic dipole anomaly , drift ice , anomaly (physics) , sea ice thickness , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , physics , northern hemisphere , condensed matter physics
A 1‐D thermodynamic sea ice model, forced with North Pole Drift Station observations from 1954–91, is used to study the effect of changing atmospheric forcing on multi‐year Arctic sea ice. From 1954–70, most seasons show positive trends in calculated sea ice thickness over much of the Arctic. A dip in calculated ice thickness takes place between 1971–77 over most of the Arctic. Following the North Pacific regime shift in 1976–1977, the period 1978–91 reveals large negative trends in calculated sea ice thickness in all seasons. The results indicate that an important part of the variability and trends in Arctic sea ice thickness is thermodynamically‐driven. Of the total variance in multi‐year sea ice thickness, 10 to 20% is explained by variations in the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North American patterns. The multi‐year ice thickness response to a positive wintertime Arctic Oscillation anomaly occurs the following summer and persists for more than a year.