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Transient simulations of Holocene atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrestrial carbon since the Last Glacial Maximum
Author(s) -
Joos Fortunat,
Gerber Stefan,
Prentice I. C.,
OttoBliesner Bette L.,
Valdes Paul J.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1029/2003gb002156
Subject(s) - holocene , carbon cycle , glacial period , environmental science , carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere , ice core , paleoclimatology , climatology , interglacial , climate change , geology , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , ecosystem , geomorphology , ecology , biology
Conflicting hypotheses are investigated for the observed atmospheric CO 2 increase of 20 ppm between 8 ka BP and pre‐industrial time. The carbon component of the Bern Carbon Cycle Climate (Bern CC) model, which couples the Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to an atmosphere‐ocean‐sediment component, is driven by climate fields from time‐slice simulations of the past 21 ka with the Hadley Centre Unified Model or the NCAR Climate System Model. The entire Holocene ice core record of CO 2 is matched within a few ppm for the standard model setup, and results are broadly consistent with proxy data of atmospheric 13 CO 2 , mean ocean δ 13 C, and pollen data, within their uncertainties. Our analysis suggests that a range of mechanisms, including calcite compensation in response to earlier terrestrial uptake, terrestrial carbon uptake and release, SST changes, and coral reef buildup, contributed to the 20 ppm rise. The deep sea δ 13 C record constrains the contribution of the calcite compensation mechanism to 4–10 ppm. Terrestrial carbon inventory changes related to climate and CO 2 forcing, the greening of the Sahara, peat buildup, and land use have probably influenced atmospheric CO 2 by a few ppm only. The early Holocene CO 2 decrease is quantitatively explained by terrestrial uptake and calcite compensation in response to terrestrial uptake during the glacial‐interglacial transition. The recent hypothesis by Ruddiman [2003] that anthropogenic land use caused a 40 ppm CO 2 anomaly over the past 8 ka, preventing the climate system from entering a new glacial, would imply an anthropogenic emission of 700 GtC and a decrease in atmospheric δ 13 C of 0.6 permil. This is not compatible with the ice core δ 13 C record and would require an upward revision of land use emission estimates by a factor of 3 to 4.