Open AccessVariability and predictability of 200‐mb seasonal mean heights during summer and winter
Author(s) -
Kumar Arun,
Schubert Siegfried D.,
Suarez Max S.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2002jd002728
Subject(s) - predictability , extratropical cyclone , climatology , environmental science , northern hemisphere , seasonality , atmospheric sciences , atmospheric circulation , southern hemisphere , geology , mathematics , biology , ecology , statistics
In this paper a comparison of the variability and predictability of 200‐mb seasonal mean heights for winter and summer is made based upon atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. Simulations from two different AGCMs for the 1982–1999 period are used. The magnitude of seasonal predictability for the winter and summer is found to be similar. The spatial characteristics of seasonal predictability, however, had some interesting differences. For the respective hemisphere's summer the extratropical zonal mean heights had an appreciable contribution towards seasonal predictability, whereas for the winter season, predictability was dominated by eddy heights. There were also interesting interhemispheric differences in seasonal variability and predictability which are attributed to an interplay between the seasonal cycle of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation SST anomalies and the seasonal cycle of mean atmospheric circulation which governs the dynamics of tropical‐extratropical interactions.