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Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium
Author(s) -
Bauer Eva,
Claussen Martin,
Brovkin Victor,
Huenerbein Anja
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2002gl016639
Subject(s) - climatology , forcing (mathematics) , volcano , northern hemisphere , deforestation (computer science) , volcanism , climate change , radiative forcing , environmental science , climate model , insolation , atmospheric sciences , global warming , geology , oceanography , paleontology , seismology , computer science , tectonics , programming language
The effects of natural and anthropogenic forcings (solar activity, volcanism, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, deforestation) on climate changes are estimated with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER‐2, for the past millennium. Simulated surface air temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere from the combined forcing correlate reasonably well with paleoclimatic data ( r = 0.70). The largest negative anomalies occur when insolation minima coincide with volcanic eruptions. Anthropogenic forcings impose additional climate changes after 1850. The increasing warming from increasing CO 2 concentrations is attenuated by the cooling effect from deforestation. Results from differently combined forcings suggest that the relatively cool climate in the second half of 19th century is largely attributable to cooling from deforestation.