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Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios
Author(s) -
Schaeffer M.,
Selten F. M.,
Opsteegh J. D.,
Goosse H.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2002gl015254
Subject(s) - predictability , climate change , environmental science , climatology , climate model , transient climate simulation , climate commitment , abrupt climate change , regime shift , range (aeronautics) , global warming , runaway climate change , atmospheric sciences , effects of global warming , physics , geology , ecosystem , ecology , oceanography , materials science , quantum mechanics , composite material , biology
We used an ensemble climate‐model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North‐Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non‐mitigation emission scenario the transition has a high probability to occur before 2100. In a lower IPCC scenario the probability is lower and the transition threshold is approached more gradually. We found that close to the threshold the evolution of the system becomes sensitive to small perturbations. Consequently, natural climate fluctuations limit the predictability of the timing of crossing the transition threshold, and thus of the abrupt climate change, most strongly for the lower IPCC scenario. No transition is projected for a mitigation scenario, in which CO 2 ‐equivalent concentrations are stabilized below the IPCC‐scenario range.