Sustainability of terrestrial carbon sequestration: A case study in Duke Forest with inversion approach

A sound understanding of the sustainability of terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration is critical for the success of any policies geared toward stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse concentrations. This includes the Kyoto Protocol and/or other greenhouse strategies implemented by individual countries. However, the sustainability of C sinks and pools has not been carefully studied with either empirical or theoretical approaches. This study was intended to develop a conceptual framework to define the sustainability based on C influx and residence time (τ). The latter τ quantifies the capacity for C storage in various plant and soil pools. We estimated τ via inverse analysis of multiple data sets from a Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Duke Forest, North Carolina, United States. This study suggested that estimated residence times at elevated CO 2 decreased for plant C pools and increased for litter and soil pools in comparison to those at ambient CO 2 . The ensemble of the residence times from all the pools at elevated CO 2 , however, was well correlated with that at ambient CO 2 . We then used the estimated residence times, combined with C influx, to simulate C sequestration rates in response to a gradual increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (C a ). The simulated C sequestration rate gradually increased from 69 g m −2 yr −1 in 2000 when C a was 378 ppm to 201 g m −2 yr −1 in 2100 when C a was at 710 ppm. Thus, the current evidence from both experimental observations and inverse analysis suggested that C sequestration in the forest ecosystem was likely to increase gradually as C a gradually increases. The model projection of the C sequestration will improve as more data on long‐term processes become available in coming years. In addition, such a modeled increase in terrestrial C sequestration is too small to balance the anthropogenic C emission.