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Assessing ocean‐model sensitivity to wind forcing uncertainties
Author(s) -
Burillo I. Andreu,
Caniaux G.,
Gavart M.,
De Mey P.,
Baraille R.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl014473
Subject(s) - thermocline , mixed layer , forcing (mathematics) , mesoscale meteorology , advection , climatology , entrainment (biomusicology) , wind stress , meteorology , environmental science , sea surface temperature , geology , atmospheric sciences , physics , rhythm , acoustics , thermodynamics
In this paper, we assess the short‐term forecast error of a mesoscale primitive‐equation open‐ocean model, induced by uncertainties in wind forcing. Statistics calculated from an ensemble of ocean states show that temperature forecast error is strongest at the top of the ensemble‐mean thermocline, as a consequence of vertical displacement of the mixed‐layer base around its ensemble mean. Horizontal pattern of the temperature error in the mixed‐layer is mainly explained by horizontal advection and surface heat flux fluctuations. These two mechanisms and entrainment through the mixed‐layer bottom are presented as the three processes responsible for thermal forecast error growth in the modeled upper ocean.