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Future development of the ozone layer calculated by a general circulation model with fully interactive chemistry
Author(s) -
Nagashima Tatsuya,
Takahashi Masaaki,
Takigawa Masayuki,
Akiyoshi Hideharu
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl014026
Subject(s) - ozone , stratosphere , atmospheric sciences , southern hemisphere , ozone depletion , northern hemisphere , ozone layer , environmental science , climatology , carbon dioxide , polar , chemistry , meteorology , geology , geography , physics , organic chemistry , astronomy
The future development of stratospheric ozone is estimated using an atmospheric general circulation model that includes a fully interactive chemistry module. Two transient integrations considering the anthropogenic chlorine emission trend were performed. One calculated with a carbon dioxide increase and a sea surface temperature (SST) variation between 1986 and 2050, and the other without the increase or the variation. In the Southern Hemisphere polar region, a 10 day‐averaged column ozone takes its minimum of 140 Dobson Unit (DU) around 2000 and recovers above 220 DU after the late 2030s. Such temporal evolution of ozone is not greatly influenced by the carbon dioxide increase and SST variation but seems to be maintained by simulated chlorine loading in the lower stratosphere. In the integration with carbon dioxide increase and SST variation, the Northern Hemisphere polar column ozone decreases until 2010, but massive depletion such as that causing the Antarctic ozone‐hole (less than 200 DU) does not occur.