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Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime phenology in the eastern U.S.
Author(s) -
Jenkins J. P.,
Braswell B. H.,
Frolking S. E.,
Aber J. D.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl014008
Subject(s) - phenology , climatology , environmental science , deciduous , normalized difference vegetation index , satellite , temperate forest , temperate deciduous forest , temperate climate , atmospheric sciences , climate change , geology , ecology , oceanography , aerospace engineering , engineering , biology
We performed a diagnostic analysis of AVHRR‐NDVI and gridded, temperature data for the deciduous forests of the eastern U.S., calibrating temperature accumulation model with satellite data for 1982–1993. The model predicts interannual variability in onset date based upon year‐to‐year changes in springtime temperature. RMS error over the period ranges from 6.9 days in the northern portion of the domain to 10.7 days in the south. The analysis revealed a relationship between temperature accumulation and satellite derived onset date (rank correlation = 0.31–0.62). The required temperature accumulation threshold can be expressed as a function of mean temperature (R 2 of 0.90) to facilitate predictive analysis of phenological onset, or when remote sensing data are unavailable.