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On the magnitude of positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle
Author(s) -
Dufresne J.L.,
Fairhead L.,
Le Treut H.,
Berthelot M.,
Bopp L.,
Ciais P.,
Friedlingstein P.,
Monfray P.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl013777
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , carbon cycle , atmosphere (unit) , atmospheric sciences , climatology , carbon fibers , climate model , climate sensitivity , general circulation model , global change , greenhouse gas , atmospheric carbon cycle , meteorology , ecosystem , geology , geography , oceanography , ecology , mathematics , algorithm , composite number , biology
We use an ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model coupled to land and ocean carbon models to simulate the evolution of climate and atmospheric CO 2 from 1860 to 2100. Our model reproduces the observed global mean temperature changes and the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 for the period 1860–2000. For the future, we simulate that the climate change due to CO 2 increase will reduce the land carbon uptake, leaving a larger fraction of anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere. By 2100, we estimate that atmospheric CO 2 will be 18% higher due to the climate change impact on the carbon cycle. Such a positive feedback has also been found by Cox et al. [2000]. However, the amplitude of our feedback is three times smaller than the one they simulated. We show that the partitioning between carbon stored in the living biomass or in the soil, and their respective sensitivity to increased CO 2 and climate change largely explain this discrepancy.