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Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 on global climate in the next two centuries
Author(s) -
Dai Aiguo,
Wigley T. M. L.,
Meehl G. A.,
Washington W. M.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl013359
Subject(s) - environmental science , climatology , atmosphere (unit) , precipitation , greenhouse gas , global warming , atmospheric sciences , climate change , climate model , latitude , global temperature , range (aeronautics) , climate simulation , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , materials science , geodesy , composite material
Previous coupled ocean‐atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO 2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long‐term effect of stabilizing CO 2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO 2 , SO 2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO 2 stabilization could be large (∼1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high‐latitudes) by the later part of the 22 nd century. Stabilizing the CO 2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.