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The Antarctic dipole and its predictability
Author(s) -
Yuan Xiaojun,
Martinson Douglas G.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl012969
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , sea ice , geology , dipole , sea surface temperature , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , physics , quantum mechanics
This study investigates the nature of interannual variability of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship with the tropical climate. We find that the dominant interannual variance structure in the sea ice edge and surface air temperature fields is organized as a quasi‐stationary wave which we call the “Antarctic Dipole” (ADP). It is characterized by an out‐of‐phase relationship between the ice and temperature anomalies in the central/eastern Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Antarctic. The dipole consists of a strong standing mode and a weaker propagating motion within each basin's ice field. It has the same wavelength as the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and dominates the ACW variance. The dipole is clearly associated with tropical ENSO events; it can be predicted with moderate skill using linear regression involving surface temperature two to four months ahead. The prediction performs better in extreme warm/cold years, and best in La Niña years.