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Changes of Enso stability due to greenhouse warming
Author(s) -
Timmermann Axel
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2001gl012879
Subject(s) - environmental science , el niño southern oscillation , climatology , oscillation (cell signaling) , global warming , atmospheric sciences , climate change , stability (learning theory) , greenhouse gas , climate model , multivariate enso index , southern oscillation , physics , geology , computer science , oceanography , genetics , machine learning , biology
Based on a Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) simulation we study the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on the stability of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). The linear stability of such a complex model cannot be assessed directly, hence we will derive empirical low order models for ENSO from the CGCM simulation under consideration. These models capture essential features of ENSO and are sensitive also to temporal changes in ENSO statistics. An eigenvalue analysis of these reduced models reveals that as greenhouse warming progresses a transition takes place from a stable oscillatory behavior to an unstable oscillation. This transition coincides with an abrupt change in simulated ENSO activity and can be explained in terms of changing ocean dynamics.