Premium
Historical and future land use effects on N 2 O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example
Author(s) -
Reiners W. A.,
Liu S.,
Gerow K. G.,
Keller M.,
Schimel D. S.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1029/2001gb001437
Subject(s) - environmental science , land use , tropics , land use, land use change and forestry , greenhouse gas , climate change , ecosystem , variance (accounting) , estimation , atmospheric sciences , physical geography , geography , ecology , geology , management , economics , biology , accounting , business
The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N 2 O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N 2 O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well‐documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N 2 O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.