Premium
First‐order reliability method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience
Author(s) -
Maier Holger R.,
Lence Barbara J.,
Tolson Bryan A.,
Foschi Ricardo O.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2000wr900329
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , vulnerability (computing) , resilience (materials science) , reliability engineering , environmental science , first order reliability method , quality (philosophy) , computer science , water quality , environmental resource management , statistics , engineering , mathematics , random variable , ecology , computer security , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , philosophy , epistemology , biology , thermodynamics
Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience provide measures of the frequency, magnitude, and duration of the failure of water resources systems, respectively. Traditionally, these measures have been estimated using simulation. However, this can be computationally intensive, particularly when complex system‐response models are used, when many estimates of the performance measures are required, and when persistence among the data needs to be taken into account. In this paper, an efficient method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience, which is based on the First‐Order Reliability Method (FORM), is developed and demonstrated for the case study of managing water quality in the Willamette River, Oregon. Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience are determined for different dissolved oxygen (DO) standards. DO is simulated using a QUAL2EU water quality response model that has recently been developed for the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) as part of the Willamette River Basin Water Quality Study (WRBWQS). The results obtained indicate that FORM can be used to efficiently estimate reliability, vulnerability, and resilience.