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On the calibration and verification of two‐dimensional, distributed, Hortonian, continuous watershed models
Author(s) -
Senarath Sharika U. S.,
Ogden Fred L.,
Downer Charles W.,
Sharif Hatim O.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2000wr900039
Subject(s) - calibration , watershed , environmental science , surface runoff , soil science , hydrology (agriculture) , moisture , water content , field (mathematics) , remote sensing , mathematics , geology , computer science , statistics , meteorology , geotechnical engineering , geography , machine learning , ecology , pure mathematics , biology
Physically based, two‐dimensional, distributed parameter Hortonian hydrologic models are sensitive to a number of spatially varied parameters and inputs and are particularly sensitive to the initial soil moisture field. However, soil moisture data are generally unavailable for most catchments. Given an erroneous initial soil moisture field, single‐event calibrations are easily achieved using different combinations of model parameters, including physically unrealistic values. Verification of single‐event calibrations is very difficult for models of this type because of parameter estimation errors that arise from initial soil moisture field uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to determine if the likelihood of obtaining a verifiable calibration increases when a continuous flow record, consisting of multiple runoff producing events is used for model calibration. The physically based, two‐dimensional, distributed, Hortonian hydrologic model CASC2D [ Julien et al ., 1995] is converted to a continuous formulation that simulates the temporal evolution of soil moisture between rainfall events. Calibration is performed using 6 weeks of record from the 21.3 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, located in northern Mississippi. Model parameters are assigned based on soil textures, land use/land cover maps, and a combination of both. The sensitivity of the new model formulation to parameter variation is evaluated. Calibration is performed using the shuffled complex evolution method [ Duan et al ., 1991]. Three different tests are conducted to evaluate model performance based on continuous calibration. Results show that calibration on a continuous basis significantly improves model performance for periods, or subcatchments, not used in calibration and the likelihood of obtaining realistic simulations of spatially varied catchment dynamics. The automated calibration reveals that the parameter assignment methodology used in this study results in overparameterization. Additional research is needed in spatially distributed hydrologic model parameter assignment methodologies for hydrologic forecasting.