Seasonal variability of middle‐latitude ozone in the lowermost stratosphere derived from probability distribution functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three‐dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991–1996) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994–1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (∼380 K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.