Open AccessPredicting the mean Bz magnitude
Author(s) -
Keating C. F.,
Lawrence T. L.,
Prebble R. C.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: space physics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2000ja000202
Subject(s) - magnitude (astronomy) , maxima and minima , maxima , sunspot , physics , sunspot number , phase (matter) , solar cycle , geodesy , mathematics , astrophysics , geology , nuclear physics , mathematical analysis , solar wind , quantum mechanics , art , plasma , performance art , magnetic field , art history
When a “boxcar” average of the Bz magnitude is plotted, a clear cyclic pattern is apparent with an approximate correlation with the sunspot cycle. The Bz cycle minima are seen to occur at nearly the same time as the sunspot cycle minima. The cyclic maxima appear to be characterized by a double peak, with the second peak occurring in the descending phase of the sunspot cycle. This cyclical nature makes it possible to apply the McNish‐Lincoln technique to make predictions concerning the future level of Bz magnitude. This method leads to a prediction of the maximum average magnitude in Bz occurring in the year 2003 time frame.