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ENSO prediction using an ENSO trigger and a proxy for Western Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool Movement
Author(s) -
Clarke Allan J.,
Van Gorder Stephen
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl012201
Subject(s) - el niño southern oscillation , sea surface temperature , climatology , proxy (statistics) , anomaly (physics) , environmental science , oceanography , pacific ocean , multivariate enso index , geology , la niña , physics , machine learning , computer science , condensed matter physics
The zonal windstress anomaly in the far‐western equatorial Pacific (130–160°E) is a precursor to El Niño and La Niña episodes. A linear combination of this windstress with the El Niño index NINO3.4 can be used to predict ENSO successfully. Cross‐verified prediction results for NINO3.4 compare favorably with those of leading ENSO prediction models. The model is improved slightly if the time trend in sea surface temperature (SST) near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool is included in the linear combination. Physically this trend is related to zonal equatorial ocean flow which advects the warm pool. The trend therefore aids prediction since it is a precursor to warm pool position and hence ENSO variability.