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Internally and externally forced climate variability: A dynamical systems approach using the central England temperature record
Author(s) -
van der Schrier Gerard,
Versteegh Gerard J. M.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl011939
Subject(s) - sunspot , climatology , solar variation , climate change , robustness (evolution) , chaotic , maxima , environmental science , climate system , meteorology , statistical physics , geology , physics , computer science , magnetic field , art , biochemistry , oceanography , chemistry , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , performance art , gene , art history
By using concepts from dynamical systems theory, we demonstrate a technique which has the potential to distinguish explicitly between internally forced and externally forced climate variability. This technique is applied to the instrumental Central England Temperature (CET) record, where variability related to changes in the (external) solar activity and variability due to (internal) climate dynamics are separated. Based on the CET record and the sunspot record, we reconstruct a map relating successive summer temperature maxima given the number of sunspots. For low values of the sunspot number, the equilibrium behaviour of this map shows chaotic motion, indicating dominant internal climate dynamics, for high values of the sunspot number this is not the case. The robustness of the reconstruction is tested using surrogate data.