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Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective
Author(s) -
Thomson A. W. P.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl011908
Subject(s) - space weather , earth's magnetic field , perspective (graphical) , metric (unit) , meteorology , computer science , space (punctuation) , operations research , environmental science , mathematics , geography , physics , artificial intelligence , economics , operations management , quantum mechanics , magnetic field , operating system
Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users of space weather forecasts. We describe a new metric for the value of space weather forecasts, derived from Decision Theory. In particular we give equations for the level of accuracy that a forecast must exceed in order to be useful to a specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts for global geomagnetic activity and for geophysical exploration and power grid management in the British Isles.