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Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record
Author(s) -
Michaels Patrick J.,
Knappenberger Paul C.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl011833
Subject(s) - troposphere , environmental science , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , atmospheric sciences , volcano , global temperature , atmosphere (unit) , global warming , radiative forcing , atmospheric temperature , el niño southern oscillation , climate change , geology , meteorology , geography , oceanography , seismology
Volcanic and ENSO forcings explain nearly two‐thirds (63.5%) of the variance in monthly global temperature anomalies in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature observations from 1979 through 1999. While the raw trend in the drift‐adjusted 1979–99 global data is a statistically significant warming of 0.055°C/decade, the combination of volcanism and ENSO account for 25.4% of this trend, or 0.014°C/decade. The remaining trend, 0.041°C/decade, is left unexplained, likely comprising a combination of factors including the anthropogenic alterations to the collection of the earth's greenhouse gases, solar variability, and other forcings internal to the earth/atmosphere system. A recent widely cited attempt to explain the discrepancy between the rate of the observed increase in lower tropospheric MSU temperatures and the much larger value predicted by general circulation models weakens considerably when the known natural forcing mechanisms are more completely specified.