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Will the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation weaken during the 21st century?
Author(s) -
Gent Peter R.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl011727
Subject(s) - thermohaline circulation , north atlantic deep water , climatology , shutdown of thermohaline circulation , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , ocean current , oceanography , climate change , circulation (fluid dynamics) , environmental science , general circulation model , climate model , geology , physics , thermodynamics
The North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is examined in three experiments using the Climate System Model. They are a control integration for 1870 conditions, and particular emission scenarios for the 20th and 21st centuries. It is found that the strength of the thermohaline circulation does not change significantly over the 21st century. This is in contrast to several other recent studies, which have projected a significant reduction over the 21st century. The reason for the difference is that the Northwest Atlantic becomes warmer and more saline in the Climate System Model. These changes combine to make little change to the surface ocean density in this region, and hence to the rate of deep water formation. Caveats about the Climate System Model and other coupled climate models are then discussed.