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Introducing probabilistic aftershock hazard mapping
Author(s) -
Wiemer Stefan
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2000gl011479
Subject(s) - aftershock , hazard , seismology , geology , probabilistic logic , seismic hazard , statistics , mathematics , chemistry , organic chemistry
Aftershocks to large earthquakes pose a significant hazard, a fact that was highlighted by damaging aftershocks to the 1999 Turkey and Taiwan mainshocks. A new approach is introduced to quantify this hazard in terms of physical parameter maps that forecast the probabilistic aftershock hazard based on the observed spatially varying aftershock activity. For two case studies, the Landers and Northridge mainshocks, probabilistic aftershock hazard maps are shown to improve conventional aftershock hazard assessment.