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Models of solar irradiance variability and the instrumental temperature record
Author(s) -
Marcus Steven L.,
Ghil Michael,
Ide Kayo
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl900269
Subject(s) - solar irradiance , irradiance , solar variation , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , radiative forcing , proxy (statistics) , forcing (mathematics) , climatology , climate change , geology , physics , oceanography , quantum mechanics , machine learning , computer science
The effects of decade‐to‐century (Dec‐Cen) variations in total solar irradiance on global mean surface temperature T s during the pre‐Pinatubo instrumental era (1854‐1991) are studied by using two different proxies for the irradiance and an energy‐balance climate model. Irradiance anomalies based on solar‐cycle length (CL) and solar‐cycle decay rate (CD) proxies can account for most of the warming observed up to 1976, but anthropogenic forcing is needed to explain the subsequent sharp increase in T s . The time series of CL‐solar and anthropogenic radiative forcing resemble each other; this similarity makes it difficult to separate their effects in the instrumental T s record. The CD‐based irradiance values reflect heuristically intensity variations in photospheric turbulence; this proxy allows one to obtain more tightly constrained values of both solar variability and terrestrial climate sensitivity from the instrumental T s record.