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An El‐Nino Prediction System using an intermediate ocean and a statistical atmosphere
Author(s) -
Kang InSik,
Kug JongSeong
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl011023
Subject(s) - predictability , initialization , climatology , sea surface temperature , atmosphere (unit) , environmental science , atmospheric model , forecast skill , meteorology , geology , oceanography , computer science , mathematics , statistics , geography , programming language
An El‐Nino prediction model is developed based on an intermediate ocean model similar to the Cane and Zebiak (CZ) and a statistical atmosphere model. The present ocean model differs from CZ in the parameterization of sub‐surface temperature and the basic state. The predictability skill of the present model is better than that of CZ. The better performance is particularly distinctive for early stage of the prediction everywhere in the domain and in the central Pacific for all period of prediction. It is suggested that the better performance for the early stage is due to the use of SST anomalies in the initialization, and the better performance in the central Pacific results from a better representation of subsurface temperature in the present model.