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Implications of changes in the northern hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change
Author(s) -
Gillett Nathan P.,
Hegerl Gabriele C.,
Allen Myles R.,
Stott Peter A.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl010981
Subject(s) - northern hemisphere , environmental science , climatology , climate change , forcing (mathematics) , arctic oscillation , greenhouse gas , atmospheric sciences , global warming , abrupt climate change , atmospheric circulation , effects of global warming , oceanography , geology
The first principal component of Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, has increased significantly in recent winters, and this change is associated with ∼30% of Northern Hemisphere January–March warming. We examine the AO in a model used to detect anthropogenic influence on climate, and find that it exhibits no systematic trend in response to greenhouse gas, sulphate aerosol, or ozone forcing. To test the significance of this discrepancy for anthropogenic climate change detection, we include the spatio‐temporal pattern of temperature change associated with the observed AO in the set of forcing‐response “fingerprints” used to account for observed changes, thus separating temperature change associated with the AO from a residual. We find that the detection of a global response to both anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols is robust to this exclusion of AO‐related warming.