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Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño
Author(s) -
Perigaud Claire M.,
Cassou Christophe
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl010781
Subject(s) - western hemisphere warm pool , climatology , environmental science , atmosphere (unit) , ocean heat content , indian ocean , westerlies , pacific ocean , sea surface temperature , pacific decadal oscillation , el niño southern oscillation , geology , oceanography , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography
In the western Pacific, Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) usually show up in the boreal fall‐winter season, depending on the activity of the Madden and Jullian oscillation. It is demonstrated with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model that WWB have an impact on the coupled system in El Niño forecasting that depends on the ocean preconditioning. Sea level data reveal decadal changes of the Ocean Heat Content of the entire tropical Pacific (the OHC), with a minimum in the mid‐1980s relative to highs before 1982 and after 1996. Adding the WWB in the forecast system does not degrade the successful predictions when the OHC is low whereas WWB are necessary in winter 1981–82 and 1996–97 to successfully predict the forthcoming warm events. Thus, when the OHC is high in addition to the other traditional conditions being favorable for a warm growth, WWB contribute to having a strong El Niño event the following year.