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Statistical aspects of major (Intense) Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950–1998): Implications for the current season
Author(s) -
Wilson Robert M.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl004904
Subject(s) - atlantic hurricane , climatology , environmental science , structural basin , tropical cyclone , geology , paleontology
Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir‐Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥50 m s −1 ), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950–1998 are investigated in relation to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated “more” versus “less” activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as “non‐El Niño‐related” (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is ≈ 53%, while it is only ≈ 14% when it is classified as “El Niño‐related” (ENR). Including the activity levels (“more” versus “less”), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be ≈ 71% for the “more‐NENR” season, 30% for the “less‐NENR” season, 17% for the “more‐ENR” season, and 12% for the “less‐ENR” season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a “more‐NENR” season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4±1 or higher.