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A novel on‐line method for single station prediction and forecasting of the ionospheric critical frequency f o F 2 1 hour ahead
Author(s) -
Bilge Ayşe H.,
Tulunay Yurdanur
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/1999gl003697
Subject(s) - critical frequency , ionosphere , radar , trigonometry , meteorology , dependency (uml) , harmonics , line (geometry) , environmental science , mathematics , geodesy , physics , computer science , geology , telecommunications , mathematical analysis , geometry , software engineering , quantum mechanics , astronomy , voltage
The unpredictable variability of the ionospheric F region greatly limits the efficiency of communications, radar and navigation systems which employ high frequency (HF) radiowaves. The objective of this work is to forecast the ionospheric critical frequency values ( f o F 2) one hour in advance. For this a novel method has been developed for 1‐hour ahead forecasting of the critical frequency of the F 2 layer ( f o F 2) based on applying feedback on predicted monthly median values of f o F 2 for each hour. The basic model for the prediction of the monthly medians consists of a parabolic dependency on R 12 superimposed by a trigonometric expansion in terms of the harmonics of yearly variation, linearly modulated by R 12 . The monthly medians for each hour are predicted by applying the basic model over a sliding data window.