A novel on‐line method for single station prediction and forecasting of the ionospheric critical frequency f o F 2 1 hour ahead

The unpredictable variability of the ionospheric F region greatly limits the efficiency of communications, radar and navigation systems which employ high frequency (HF) radiowaves. The objective of this work is to forecast the ionospheric critical frequency values ( f o F 2) one hour in advance. For this a novel method has been developed for 1‐hour ahead forecasting of the critical frequency of the F 2 layer ( f o F 2) based on applying feedback on predicted monthly median values of f o F 2 for each hour. The basic model for the prediction of the monthly medians consists of a parabolic dependency on R 12 superimposed by a trigonometric expansion in terms of the harmonics of yearly variation, linearly modulated by R 12 . The monthly medians for each hour are predicted by applying the basic model over a sliding data window.