Ecosystem managers can learn from past successes

Can ecosystem managers rely on mechanistic simulation models to guide their decisions? Regional ecosystem restoration efforts in the United States now resemble the large public works projects of past decades, with similar costs and requirements to foster broad public and political support. Because managers use simulation models to set priorities and regulate human activities, problems with implementing and maintaining these models can derail their best efforts. If the models are perceived as unreliable, the public can reasonably question the validity of these decisions. When problems with the models persist, confidence erodes in the science‐based approach that is widely touted as the solution to increasingly complex and politically charged environmental issues.