Open AccessEffectively responding to the threat of global warming
Author(s) -
Dickinson William R.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
eos, transactions american geophysical union
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.316
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 2324-9250
pISSN - 0096-3941
DOI - 10.1029/00eo00060
Subject(s) - grassroots , climate change , global warming , appeal , global temperature , political science , greenhouse effect , environmental science , natural resource economics , imperfect , greenhouse gas , mode (computer interface) , climatology , economics , computer science , ecology , law , geology , linguistics , philosophy , politics , operating system , biology
Perspectives on future climate change highlight two truisms: 1) given the known greenhouse properties of CO 2 , its anthropogenic increase in the atmosphere is bound to influence global temperatures to some extent; and 2) the magnitude of the effect is uncertain because global climate models are imperfect. However, consideration of data internal to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientific assessment [ Houghton et al. , 1990] suggests that there is less uncertainty than current debates assume. I argue here that the high‐end estimate of future global temperature is unlikely, and that grassroots appeal to national economic interests might prove more effective in meeting the actual level of threat than coercive international regulations imposed in a topdown mode.