U.S. Federal Agency Models Offer Different Visions for Achieving Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Biofuel Volumes

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) in the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) sets annual volume targets for domestic renewable transportation fuel consumption through 2022, but allows for flexibility in the types of biomass used for biofuels and where and how they are grown. Spatially explicit feedstock scenarios for how the agricultural and forestry sectors can produce sufficient biomass to meet these targets have been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Here we compare the models used to generate these scenarios and their underlying assumptions on crop yields, feedstock prices, biofuel conversion efficiencies, land availability, and other critical factors. We find key differences in the amount of land devoted to different biomass sources and their geographic distribution, most notably for perennial grasses. These different visions of land use and management for bioenergy in the U.S. are currently being used both for regulation and to set research funding priorities. Understanding the key assumptions and uncertainties that underlie these scenarios is important for accurate assessment of the potential economic and environmental impacts of RFS2, as well as for optimal design of future energy and agricultural policy.