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A method of prediction of location of water cresting and characterizing its intensity in a horizontal well in a water-drive reservoir is introduced for the first time. A mechanistic model for water cresting derived from Darcy's equation incorporating the main parameters reported in the literature affecting water cresting-viscosity, well distance to the aquifer, wellbore pressure gradient, and reservoir heterogeneity-is introduced with two new characterizing parameters. First is a model-derived parameter, called the breakthrough coefficient, which is defined as the ratio of the average time of breakthrough to the time of breakthrough for a segment of the well, with the model-predicted location of water cresting corresponding to the well segment with the largest breakthrough coefficient. The second is the Cresting index, which is the ratio of the maximum breakthrough coefficient to the minimum breakthrough coefficient as a characterizing parameter, with a well with a higher cresting index corresponding to a faster breakthrough in a group of similar wells. This methodology was validated through a series of sophisticated experimental corefloods and found to predict 78% of the location of the water cresting accurately. The cresting index is found to be weakly correlated with the speed of breakthrough among similar wells.

Method of Predicting the Location of Water Cresting for Horizontal Wells in a Water-Drive Reservoir for Early Prevention