Open AccessUtilising a farm‐level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs
Author(s) -
Mjelde James W,
Thompson Troy N,
Nixon Clair J,
Lamb Peter J
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1017/s1350482797000418
Subject(s) - precipitation , environmental science , value (mathematics) , climate change , climatology , decision model , econometrics , operations research , meteorology , economics , mathematics , statistics , geography , ecology , mathematical economics , geology , biology
A whole‐farm‐level decision model is used to examine the impact of the type of decisions producers make on the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results suggest that precipitation forecasts directed towards crop mix and applied nitrogen level decisions would have the largest economic value. Further, the results show that the economic value of climate forecasts cannot be obtained by examining only a small set of decision types. Rather, all decision types must be modelled to value seasonal precipitation forecasts correctly. This occurs because in response to seasonal climate forecasts changes in one type of decision may override the need to change other decision types. Finally, forecasts of precipitation during the crop tasselling and grain filling stages may be more valuable than precipitation forecasts for earlier crop growth periods. Copyright © 1997 Royal Meteorological Society