Open AccessStatistical comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modelling System forecasts with observations
Author(s) -
Buckley Robert L.,
Weber Allen H.,
Weber Jilene H.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1017/s1350482703001142
Subject(s) - environmental science , wind speed , standard deviation , meteorology , range (aeronautics) , climatology , intensity (physics) , turbulence , wind direction , statistical analysis , atmospheric sciences , statistics , mathematics , geography , geology , physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , composite material
Abstract A statistical comparison of observations and forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) for operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina is discussed. Simulated and observed values of wind direction and wind speed, collected twice daily for a two‐year period from April 1998 to March 2000, are compared in a variety of ways for five different locations in the southeastern United States. Simulated and observed turbulence intensities are also compared for a one‐year period beginning in February 1999 for the SRS. Statistical measures used for comparison are the mean absolute error, mean relative error and standard deviation. Directional errors tend to increase with forecast time while speeds tend to be underestimated over the entire forecast range, especially those exceeding 8 m s −1 . Seasonally, winds are predicted with greater accuracy during the winter and spring months, when speeds in the southeastern United States are higher and direction is less variable. Vertical turbulence intensity at SRS is slightly underestimated, while horizontal turbulence intensity is slightly overestimated. In general, the statistical measures show that the model produces results with reasonable skill for the wind speed, direction and turbulence. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.