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An operational method for forecasting total column ozone for Punta Arenas, Chile
Author(s) -
McMahon R Monreal,
Aguilar R,
Valderrama V,
Burt P J A
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1017/s1350482702003067
Subject(s) - ozone , environmental science , ozone layer , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , climatology , range (aeronautics) , ozone depletion , geography , geology , materials science , composite material
Owing to the decrease of stratospheric ozone during the southern spring (starting in September), the city of Punta Arenas (53.1 ° S, 70.9 ° W) and its surroundings are exposed to a high incidence of ultra‐violet‐B (UV‐B) radiation during this period. Ozone denatures DNA, and prolonged exposure may cause skin carcinoma and cataracts. Consequently, there is great concern among the inhabitants of this region regarding the possible effects of long‐term exposure to UV‐B. In this work we apply and further develop a pilot study carried out in 1995 which looks at the simple operational method of forecasting ozone levels some 42 hours in advance. The method is based on the prediction of the 100 mb‐temperature from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts), which is well correlated with total column ozone levels. It allows the inhabitants of the Magallanes region to be alerted to potentially high incidences of UV‐B radiation during the Austral spring. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

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