Open AccessStatistical interpretation of NWP products in India
Author(s) -
Maini Parvinder,
Kumar Ashok,
Singh S V,
Rathore L S
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1017/s1350482702001032
Subject(s) - numerical weather prediction , meteorology , climatology , environmental science , precipitation , model output statistics , range (aeronautics) , global forecast system , weather forecasting , monsoon , quantitative precipitation forecast , tropical cyclone forecast model , interpretation (philosophy) , computer science , geography , geology , engineering , aerospace engineering , programming language
Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide an objective forecast, poor representation of local topography and other features in these models, necessitates statistical interpretation (SI) of NWP products in terms of local weather. The Perfect Prognostic Method (PPM) is one of the techniques for accomplishing this. At the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, PPM models for precipitation (quantitative, probability, yes/no) and maximum/minimum temperatures are developed for monsoon season by using analyses from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. The SI forecast is then obtained by using these PPM models and output from the operational NWP model at the Center. Direct model output (DMO) obtained from the NWP model and the SI forecast are verified against the actual observations. The present study shows the verification scores obtained during the 1997 monsoon season for 10 locations in India. The results show that the SI forecast has good skill and is an improvement over DMO. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.