Opportunity for selection in southern elephant seals ( Mirounga leonina ): the effect of spatial scale of analysis

The opportunity for selection, I , calculated as the variance in relative fitness, sets an upper limit to the amount of adaptive change that selection may produce. Therefore, it is a potentially valuable, and frequently used, measure of the potential of action of phenotypic selection. Although many different aspects of I calculation and analysis have been explored, the effect of the spatial scale chosen for calculation received little attention, notwithstanding the growing evidence that natural populations are not homogeneous and present a hierarchical spatial structure. The effect of scale on the estimation of I was examined from data collected in two populations of southern elephant seals ( Mirounga leonina ), an easily observable and strongly polygynous species. A significant effect of spatial scale on three important aspects of I calculation and analysis was found: dependence of I on mean fitness, between population variation of I , and effect of local demography on I .