Modelling the scorpion stings using surveillance data in El Bayadh Province, Algeria

Objective: To examine some epidemiological features of scorpion envenomations, analyse and\udinterpret the recorded data, find any relationship between the incidence of scorpion stings and\udclimatic factors, and finally develop a statistical model to estimate the variability among future\udcases in El Bayadh Province, Algeria.\udMethods: To assess the effects of climate variability on the scorpion envenomations, we\udapplied the count data regression models to the monthly recorded scorpion stings in El Bayadh\udProvince from 2001 to 2012.\udResults: The epidemiological analysis of data revealed that scorpion stings occured mainly\udin rural areas, round the clock, all year long with the highest seasonal incidence in summer,\udand the lowest in winter, all ages with male predominance. The ends of upper and lower limbs\udwere the most affected parts of the human body. The majority of cases (95.7%) were classified\udas mild envenomations and systemic toxicity was observed in 4.3% of cases. The use of\udcount data regression models showed that the negative binomial regression was appropriate to\udforecast cases and the fitted data agreed considerably with the actual data. Moreover, the model\udhad predicted the monthly scorpion sting cases for the year of 2013, with satisfactory accuracy.\udConclusions: This study shows an optimism for forecasting scorpion stings by modelling\udand calibration with surveillance data and climate information. This knowledge could help to\udcontain any unusual situation and assist health decision-makers to strengthen the prevention\udand control measures and to be in a state of readiness