Open AccessTime series modelon hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia
Author(s) -
Noraishah Mohammad Sham,
Isthrinayagy Krishnarajah,
Mahendran Shitan,
Munn Sann Lye
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
asian pacific journal of tropical disease
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.208
H-Index - 33
ISSN - 2222-1808
DOI - 10.1016/s2222-1808(14)60608-3
Subject(s) - autoregressive–moving average model , hand foot and mouth disease , statistics , time series , foot (prosody) , series (stratigraphy) , moving average , mathematics , econometrics , geography , autoregressive model , disease , medicine , biology , paleontology , linguistics , philosophy , pathology
Objective: To model and forecast hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases since there has not\udbeen any studies on time series modelling of HFMD in Sarawak, Malaysia.\udMethods: The longitudinal data of HFMD collected over the past 7 years (2006-2012) showed a\udcyclical pattern of outbreak every 2 to 3 years. The data consisted of weekly number of HFMD\udreported cases from 2006 to 2012. An auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model was fitted to\udthe data. Batting average was used to measure the performance of our forecast for 2013.\udResults: The results indicate that ARMA model fit the trends of HFMD in Sarawak very close to the\udactual data during our study period. Our prediction for the number of HFMD reported cases lies\udwithin the 90% interval range for the first 16 weeks in 2013.\udConclusions: An ARMA(1,4) model fits the data well and has good prediction ability of over 90%\udaccuracy