COVID-19 spread and inter-county travel: Daily evidence from the U.S. | Zendy

Hakan Yilmazkuday | Zendy

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COVID-19 spread and inter-county travel: Daily evidence from the U.S.

Author(s) -

Hakan Yilmazkuday

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.383

H-Index - 10

ISSN - 2590-1982

DOI - 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100244

Subject(s) - covid-19 , counterfactual thinking , demography , estimation , geography , significant difference , fixed effects model , medicine , gerontology , statistics , psychology , outbreak , disease , mathematics , panel data , economics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , virology , sociology , social psychology , management

Daily data at the U.S. county level suggest that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths are lower in counties where a higher share of people have stayed in the same county (or travelled less to other counties). This observation is tested formally by using a difference-in-difference design controlling for county-fixed effects and time-fixed effects, where weekly changes in COVID-19 cases or deaths are regressed on weekly changes in the share of people who have stayed in the same county during the previous 14 days. A counterfactual analysis based on the formal estimation results suggests that staying in the same county has the potential of reducing total weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S. as much as by 139,503 and by 23,445, respectively.

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